What the Odds Really Say About a Bigger Fall

Fear of a bigger correction is building, but the market’s message is more nuanced than the headlines suggest. After a powerful tech-led run, the character of the price action has clearly changed – so what do the odds really say about a larger fall from here?

In this week’s update I look at the current pullback through the lens of probabilities and preparation, not prediction. I walk through the difference between a valuation reset inside an ongoing bull market and the early stages of a deeper correction, and how I’m managing risk without trying to “call the crash”.

For the full experience, watch the YouTube video at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QxbrfLUIq58

📈 View our scoreboard of results here: www.specialistshareeducation.com.au/insiders-club/#core_results

Here’s what I cover in this video:

• Why the recent selling in high-multiple leaders looks more like a valuation and leadership reset – for now
• The price-action clues I watch: leadership, breadth, small caps and sector rotation
• How I think about cash levels and exposure for different types of investors
• Why “wait and see” so often leads to selling near the bottom
• How to identify vulnerable positions and build a watchlist for better entries
• What history shows about major tops versus sharp corrections when earnings stay resilient

If you’d like a more structured framework for navigating this kind of environment, that’s exactly what my Insiders Club and Portfolio Analyst memberships are designed to provide.

🔹 Learn more about Insiders Club
https://www.specialistshareeducation.com.au/insiders-club

🔹 Learn more about Portfolio Analyst - $1 Trial Available
https://www.specialistshareeducation.com.au/portfolio-analyst

Any advice in this video is general advice only. Neither your personal objectives, financial situation or needs have been taken into consideration. Accordingly you should consider how appropriate the advice (if any) is to those objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice. Garry Davis (AR No:317590) is an authorised representative of Primary Securities Ltd (AFSL No. 224107).

Note to traders* The publishers of this material wish to disclose that they may hold this stock in their portfolios and that any decision to purchase this stock should be done so after the purchaser has made their own inquires as to the validity of any information in this material.

It must also be noted that trading in the stock market involves risk of losing money. Investors and traders can take numerous steps to mitigate such risks with a clear plan, clear targets and entry prices, and strong support from an experienced trader.

This approach underpins everything we do and is where we advise EVERY member to start, and you have access to Garry to support you in creating a trading plan that suits YOUR risk profile, timeframe, capital allocation etc.