Top Forming or Just Getting Started? How to Buy Rebounds

This week’s update at a glance

• Top forming or buyers still in control? Garry puts the beginning of a potential top into perspective and explains why investors need to observe rather than predict.
• Why bounces were expected. Market bottoms often form when the news feels worst, which is why preparation matters before confidence returns.
• What has already bounced. Gold, silver, copper, AI, tech and semiconductors have all shown important signs of strength in different ways.
• The next challenge. Bond yields, oil supply disruption and commodity volatility are now becoming important factors to watch.

What you’ll learn

• Why difficult markets need less forecasting and more preparation.
• How strategic cash can become attack capital rather than panic selling.
• Why money flows often turn before the news feels comfortable.
• How mega trends help narrow the field to higher probability opportunities.
• Why the recent fall in commodities needs perspective, not an emotional response.

The thinking shift

The instinct in difficult markets is to forecast the outcome. Garry’s view is different. Forecast less, prepare more. Build cash before emotion peaks. Prepare target lists in advance. Then wait for price action and money flows to confirm when sellers are losing control.

That does not remove volatility, and it does not guarantee perfect timing. But it can help investors avoid the common mistake of waiting for certainty, which usually means paying much higher prices once the opportunity has already become obvious.

What history shows

Markets often turn before the headlines improve. That is why rebounds can feel uncomfortable at the start. During the recent volatility, the news around war, oil, inflation, commodities and the Australian economy remained uncertain, yet parts of the market started to recover strongly.

The lesson is not to blindly buy every pullback. The lesson is to prepare before it feels safe, focus on structural tailwinds, and use the chart pattern to identify when buyers are taking control again.

Where I’m focused now

• AI, tech and semiconductors: Some moves have been extreme, but earnings and guidance remain important support for the strongest names.
• Gold, silver and copper: The long-term opportunity remains strong, but commodity volatility is likely to shake out poorly prepared investors.
• Energy and oil: The physical supply disruption is becoming clearer, and the longer the war drags on, the greater the potential economic impact.
• Australia’s changing landscape: Investors may need to think differently about where genuine growth and resilience can be found.

Important information

_{Any advice in this video is general advice only. Neither your personal objectives, financial situation or needs have been taken into consideration. Accordingly you should consider how appropriate the advice, if any, is to those objectives, financial situation and needs before acting on the advice. Garry Davis (AR No:317590) is an authorised representative of Primary Securities Ltd (AFSL No. 224107).}

_{Note to traders: The publishers of this article, information or promotion wish to disclose that they may hold stocks mentioned in their portfolios and that any decision to purchase any stock should be done only after the purchaser has made their own enquiries as to the validity of any information in this article, information or promotion.}

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