Boom ASX Niche I’m Predicting for 2026 - Before the Crowd Catches On

This week’s update at a glance

• Big picture: US indices remain constructive and pullbacks are still being bought, but leadership is narrow and liquidity in the market darlings is starting to thin out.
• Macro backdrop: US inflation is on a cooling path and rate cut odds for December have lifted, coupled with very strong earnings.
• Australia: The index is steady on the surface, yet there is a clear split between strong sectors and areas where money is quietly exiting.
• The opportunity: I outline the ASX niche I am actually willing to “predict” will have strong tailwinds into 2026, and how I am building exposure without betting the farm.

What you’ll learn

• Why this stage of the cycle can favour a very specific pocket of the ASX, and why most investors only notice it when the easy money has already been made.
• How I separate my quality core holdings from a higher risk “early stage” basket, and why that distinction is critical for sanity and performance.
• The role of macro drivers such as the US dollar, interest rates and key commodities when you are thinking about a potential 2026 window.
• How I think about position sizing, portfolio construction and exits in a part of the market where some stocks will inevitably disappoint.
• Why none of this is about “tips” and everything is about having a process you can follow through different phases of the cycle.

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The thinking shift (in plain English)

It is tempting to think of the market in simple labels: “blue chips” for safety and “speccies” for excitement. That mindset often leads to random punting and poor portfolio construction.

The shift I am suggesting you to make is this: treat the early stage part of your portfolio as a deliberate strategy, not a collection of hunches. That means defining how much capital you are willing to risk, what your ideal position size looks like, when you will add and when you will exit.

In the video I show why I believe there is a particular ASX niche that may have a constructive window into 2026. The key is not the prediction itself. The key is whether your approach allows you to participate in the upside while staying in control if the thesis is wrong.

What history shows (with important caveats)

Historically, periods where inflation starts to cool and central banks move towards easing have often lined up with better conditions for smaller, more cyclical parts of the market. Capital becomes more willing to move out along the risk spectrum, and projects that looked marginal can suddenly appear far more attractive.

That is a useful reference point, not a guarantee. Every cycle is different, and there are always examples where the headline story looked compelling yet individual stocks still failed. This is why I focus on price action, liquidity and money flows as confirmation, rather than leaning on narratives alone.

Where I’m focused now

• Quality core holdings: Concentrated exposure to financially strong companies in Australia and the US that continue to show leadership on the charts and in the earnings numbers.
• Early stage opportunities: A defined basket of earlier stage ASX names where I believe the combination of project quality, funding status and macro tailwinds could line up into 2026. This includes both resource developers and a handful of technology names with real commercial traction.
• Precious metals and key commodities: Ongoing strength in precious metals, and structural themes in selected commodities, remain an important backdrop for part of this opportunity set.
• Risk management first: I am very clear about the amount of capital allocated to every niche/stock and the conditions under which I will exit or reduce exposure. The goal is to participate in a potential boom, not to rely on one outcome.

This content is general information only and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not personal advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial product. Markets are risky and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. You should seek professional advice before acting on any information in this update.

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