2022-Style Reset Setting Up? Metals Strong LT: What I’m Buying (and Avoiding)
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Markets have been dealing with an uncomfortable reality: when parts of the market get excessively stretched, the unwind can be sharp and it can spread quickly. This week I walk through the evidence that Big Tech may be acting as the trigger for a broader risk reset, and why I remain constructive on the longer term trend in metals even after a messy shakeout.
At a glance
- A 2022 style correction is not a prediction, but the setup is worth respecting
- Leadership is shifting: some areas are rolling over while others are holding up
- Bitcoin weakness can matter for positioning, particularly when viewed against gold
- I’m staying selective: focusing on strong trends and avoiding fragile, policy sensitive exposures
What you’ll learn
- The indicators I’m watching for a potential 2022 style reset (and what would invalidate it)
- Why Big Tech can act as a trigger for aggressive sectors when risk appetite contracts
- How I think about metals after a sharp pullback: reset versus regime change
- How I’m positioning: what I’m buying, what I’m not, and why process matters most in volatility
Thinking shift
The goal in markets is not to avoid volatility. It’s to use volatility while protecting yourself from the disasters. When leverage unwinds, markets do not behave “normally”, and that’s exactly why a plan, sizing discipline, and timing matter.
What history shows
In 2021 and into 2022 we saw leadership roll over, relative strength relationships deteriorate, and risk preferences rotate toward defensives. I’m seeing similar “warning type” behaviour in key ratios again. That does not guarantee the same outcome, but it does tell me the weight of evidence has shifted and we should stay selective.
Where I’m focused now
- Big Tech and US leadership: monitoring for further deterioration and whether it drags the aggressive areas with it
- Metals longer term: still constructive on gold and silver trends, while respecting that pullbacks can stay volatile for a while
- Bitcoin versus gold: watching the relative relationship for clues about risk appetite and flows
- Process first: targets, entries, and position sizing. I’d rather be late and right than early and chopped up
Important information
Any advice in this video is general advice only. Neither your personal objectives, financial situation or needs have been taken into consideration. Accordingly you should consider how appropriate the advice (if any) is to those objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice. Garry Davis (AR No:317590) is an authorised representative of Primary Securities Ltd (AFSL No. 224107).
Note to traders: The publishers of this article/information/promotion wish to disclose that they may hold securities discussed in their portfolios. Any decision to act should be made after you have done your own research and considered your risk profile.
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